Another potential risk aversion trend has failed to gain traction this past week; and it has taken its toll on my positions. Though I was tame in sizing my positions, the fact that I was largely skewed in my exposure towards a general trend in risk aversion was undeniable. Do I have any regrets in my effort to catch a potential trend? No. I still believe that there will be a significant correction in the speculative build up of the past 14 months; but timing is still ellusive. All I can do is to position when the market shows that it is starting to falter and has the fundamental fuel to develop and sustain such a reversal. This week, we would see the Greek crisis start to spread to other, weakened EU members. The potential for this situation to evolve into a full-blown global credit crunch is ripe; but speculative demands have proven themselves to still be too overbearing. Between the demand for yield and the ascendency of risk; an equilibrium will eventually be found and sentiment collapse on itself. But, at times like these; I repeat to myself economist John Maynard Keynes timeless quote: "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." Too true.
As for my positions, my Aussie exposure was uniformly knocked out by the currency‘s impressive rally. Though the breakout seems week, I was taken out of AUDUSD just above 0.93 (I’ll continue to watch this pair as it still has potential) and my hasty AUDNZD long from yesterday would mark a hard break below 1.28 (as the kiwi enjoyed a more rapid ascent than its neighbor). As for my other positions, I am still short EURUSD, though this pair has eased back above former support (my original entry) at 1.3250. My EURGBP is modestly in the black but congestion is still holding progress back (waiting for next week’s election). Since hitting my first target on USDCHF and USDCAD where I took half the positions off; these pairs have stalled at 1.09 and 1.02 respectively. The remaining half of each position is still well in the money; but I will let them them develop to either find bullish progress or stop out at the break even level. A new position that I have added in all of this is far more risk-neutral. CHFJPY is ranging back and forth in a descended wedge formation. I was triggered on a short near the top of this formation at 87.70.
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