Forex News

This week, the United States Bureau of Labor is likely to announce the U.S. economy probably lost more than 50K jobs in February. And even though the unemployment rate is expected to stay relatively unchanged, it’s now more than apparent that a model of job creation purely driven by government stimulus is not working as predicted by the Obama administration. That said, I still think the US dollar is a better shape than other currencies and I expect the greenback to rally further in 2010, in particular against the fragile euro and the lower yielding Japanese yen. However, I will revise that forecast against the dollar if I feel the Federal Reserve will not be able to handle an enormous political pressure to keep interest rates at a record low.

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The USD/JPY failure to break below 89.00(which has been a strong support level) could be an opportunity to get long the pair. The potential for a Greece bailout could spark a bout of risk appetite leading to support for the pair.  I wouldn’t bet on a longer-term bullish trend, but I do see potential to 100-Day SMA at 90.20. The expected negative NFP release on Friday may limit any bullish potential beyond that.  However, unexpected job growth will increase the potential for an extended move.  

My last three trades have all been stopped out, and I’m obviously not in good sync with the market. I may just have to go back to basics entirely and rely 100% on my favored Systems Trading, refraining from discretionary trades until I get a better feel for the market.